[SMM Survey Daily Briefing] 20260105

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing]

Coking Coal Market:

The offer price for low-sulphur coking coal in Linfen is 1,600 yuan/mt. The offer price for low-sulphur coking coal in Tangshan is 1,480 yuan/mt.

In terms of raw material fundamentals, with the arrival of 2026, mines that were previously suspended due to meeting production targets have resumed operations on a large scale, leading to a rapid recovery in mine production. Coking coal production is expected to increase. Currently, the fourth round of coke price reductions has been fully implemented, and there are expectations for further price cuts. Market sentiment has noticeably cooled, with traders continuing to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Downstream coking and steel enterprises have slowed their procurement. In the short term, coking coal prices still have room for further decline.

Coke Market:

The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,735 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - dry quench is 1,595 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,390 yuan/mt. The nationwide average price for quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke - wet quench is 1,300 yuan/mt.

Supply side, following the implementation of the fourth round of coke price reductions, most coking enterprises are already operating at a loss. However, rigid demand for procurement from downstream steel mills persists. The inventory buildup situation at coking enterprises has improved, and coke supply from most enterprises remains stable for now. Demand side, lower raw material prices have helped restore steel mill profits. Currently, blast furnace operations are stable, with some furnaces resuming production. Hot metal production is expected to increase, leading to higher demand for coke restocking. However, with steel prices fluctuating downward and no significant improvement in end-use consumption, steel mills still have expectations for further coke price reductions. In summary, the short-term coke market is likely to operate in a stable manner with a weakening trend.[SMM Steel]